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This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Mehta, T., Fontaine, K. R., Keith, S. W., Bangalore, S. S., de los Campos, G., Bartolucci, A., Pajewski, N. M., & Allison, D. B. (2014). Obesity and mortality: Are the risks declining? evidence from multiple prospective studies in the united states. Obesity Reviews, 15(8), 619-629., which has been published in final form at DOI: 10.1111/obr.12191. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.


We evaluated whether the obesity-associated years of life lost (YLL) have decreased over calendar time. We implemented a meta-analysis including only studies with two or more serial body mass index (BMI) assessments at different calendar years. For each BMI category (normal weight: BMI 18.5 to <25 >[reference]; overweight: BMI 25 to60, YLL for grade 1 obesity decreased by 1.02 years (P < 0.001) and increased by 0.63 years for grade 2-3 obesity (P = 0.63). Among women aged ≤60, YLL for grade 1 obesity decreased by 4.21 years (P < 0.001) and by 4.97 years (P < 0.001) for grade 2-3 obesity. In women aged >60, YLL for grade 1 obesity decreased by 3.98 years (P < 0.001) and by 2.64 years (P = 0.001) for grade 2-3 obesity. Grade 1 obesity's association with decreased longevity has reduced for older Caucasian men. For Caucasian women, there is evidence of a decline in the obesity YLL association across all ages.

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